Test geoML Output

Contrast: Programmatic w/ Bio (Treated), Null Comparison (Control)

Treatment Cases:
477
Control Cases:
4935

Figure 1. Mean Estimated Impacts from Causal Tree and Random Forest Estimation Strategies.

In this illustration, the blue vertical line is the global estimate of impact from the random forest. The range of uncertainty is illustrated using a histogram, indicating the proportion of simulations which result in positive or negative estimates. Specific confidence intervals can be calculated for this global estimate, or for individual project locations. A map of project location uncertainties is presented below.

**Descriptive Statistics for Programmatic w/ Bio (Treated)**

Statistic	Mean	St. Dev.	Min	Median	Max

Dist. to Rivers (m)	91,565.09	1,023,069.00	789.71	2,105.95	15,768,872.00
Dist. to Roads (m)	29,882.72	177,439.20	172.55	3,155.10	2,772,627.00
Elevation (m)	556.73	683.14	-0.20	372.30	4,687.19
Slope (degrees)	2.72	4.05	0.00	0.93	23.31
Urb. Dist. (rel)	415.57	602.21	6.95	237.31	5,112.51
Pop. Density (2000)	182.43	451.57	0.03	57.28	6,888.64
Protected Area %	55.59	97.31	0.00	0.00	384.74
Treecover (2000, %)	18.10	27.86	0.00	1.64	99.73
Latitude	18.60	13.15	-21.35	15.32	49.16
Longitude	42.64	52.05	-169.96	16.51	171.15
Max Precip. (2002, mm)	214.72	147.99	2.65	185.81	1,035.42
Min Precip (2002, mm)	6.98	19.63	0.00	0.00	182.80
Mean Precip (2002, mm)	74.34	58.13	0.52	58.08	321.83
Max Temp (2002, C)	28.63	5.27	1.62	28.66	38.75
Min Temp (2002, C)	14.90	11.67	-28.60	20.50	27.34
Mean Temp (2002, C)	22.18	7.44	-7.94	25.32	30.59
Nightime Lights (2002, Relative)	3.10	7.46	0.00	0.06	60.72
NDVI (2002, Unitless)	1,920.45	758.50	394.97	1,810.88	3,993.96
years since implementation	1.72	1.62	0	2	5
Programmatic w/ Bio	1.00	0.00	1	1	1
NDVI Diff pre-post implementation	-27.38	138.21	-583.75	-23.42	449.90

**Propensity Model: Programmatic w/ Bio (Treated), Null Comparison (Control)**

	Dependent variable:

	treatment

Dist. to Rivers (m)	0.0000^*** (0.0000, 0.0000)
Dist. to Roads (m)	-0.0000^* (-0.0000, 0.0000)
Elevation (m)	0.0002^* (-0.0000, 0.0005)
Slope (degrees)	0.03 (-0.01, 0.08)
Urb. Dist. (rel)	-0.001^*** (-0.001, -0.001)
Pop. Density (2000)	0.0003^* (-0.0000, 0.001)
Protected Area %	0.004^*** (0.003, 0.01)
Treecover (2000, %)	0.002 (-0.005, 0.01)
Latitude	0.04^*** (0.03, 0.05)
Longitude	0.01^*** (0.01, 0.01)
Max Precip. (2002, mm)	0.0002 (-0.002, 0.002)
Min Precip (2002, mm)	-0.01^** (-0.02, -0.002)
Mean Precip (2002, mm)	0.002 (-0.003, 0.01)
Max Temp (2002, C)	0.09^* (-0.002, 0.19)
Min Temp (2002, C)	0.19^*** (0.11, 0.26)
Mean Temp (2002, C)	-0.18^** (-0.35, -0.02)
Nightime Lights (2002, Relative)	0.01 (-0.01, 0.04)
NDVI (2002, Unitless)	-0.0005^*** (-0.001, -0.0003)
years since implementation	-0.27^*** (-0.34, -0.21)
Constant	-3.13^*** (-4.36, -1.90)

Observations	5,028
Akaike Inf. Crit.	2,437.27

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01

**Percent Balance Improvement:**

	Mean Diff.	eQQ Med	eQQ Mean	eQQ Max

Propensity Score	96.134	96.602	95.708	87.961
Dist. to Rivers (m)	5.260	-72.491	1.522	-1.158
Dist. to Roads (m)	71.144	38.379	62.909	77.881
Elevation (m)	99.333	64.798	74.608	50.287
Slope (degrees)	66.793	-5.119	-27.451	-19.555
Urb. Dist. (rel)	92.836	59.827	72.136	90.645
Pop. Density (2000)	62.558	25.653	42.930	0
Protected Area %	92.127	0	84.681	47.142
Treecover (2000, %)	92.800	78.350	71.016	56.968
Latitude	81.581	66.260	63.160	63.868
Longitude	84.652	13.046	28.585	-0.421
Max Precip. (2002, mm)	69.883	36.502	23.094	35.921
Min Precip (2002, mm)	97.645	100	60.507	61.199
Mean Precip (2002, mm)	23.291	25.445	16.307	75.805
Max Temp (2002, C)	96.968	82.900	78.715	15.960
Min Temp (2002, C)	95.138	76.297	78.218	74.221
Mean Temp (2002, C)	98.430	85.399	84.143	67.944
Nightime Lights (2002, Relative)	58.763	0	56.107	33.835
NDVI (2002, Unitless)	69.367	58.459	45.771	15.847
years since implementation	90.989	100	71.831	50

**Matched Model: Programmatic w/ Bio (Treated), Null Comparison (Control)**

	Dependent variable:

	NDVI Diff pre-post implementation

treatment	-0.01 (-0.07, 0.05)
Dist. to Rivers (m)	-0.31 (-0.93, 0.31)
Dist. to Roads (m)	0.07^** (0.01, 0.14)
Elevation (m)	-0.25^*** (-0.36, -0.15)
Slope (degrees)	-0.14^*** (-0.23, -0.05)
Urb. Dist. (rel)	0.10^*** (0.02, 0.17)
Pop. Density (2000)	0.02 (-0.06, 0.11)
Protected Area %	-0.03 (-0.09, 0.03)
Treecover (2000, %)	0.16^*** (0.06, 0.27)
Latitude	-0.07 (-0.25, 0.10)
Longitude	-0.23^*** (-0.32, -0.14)
Max Precip. (2002, mm)	-0.46^*** (-0.64, -0.29)
Min Precip (2002, mm)	0.01 (-0.08, 0.10)
Mean Precip (2002, mm)	0.27^** (0.06, 0.48)
Max Temp (2002, C)	-0.20 (-0.51, 0.11)
Min Temp (2002, C)	-0.27 (-0.81, 0.27)
Mean Temp (2002, C)	-0.11 (-0.83, 0.61)
Nightime Lights (2002, Relative)	-0.002 (-0.08, 0.08)
NDVI (2002, Unitless)	-0.07 (-0.16, 0.02)
years since implementation	-0.05^* (-0.12, 0.01)
Urb. Dist. (rel) *Treatment	-0.05 (-0.12, 0.02)
Dist. to Rivers (m) *Treatment	0.25 (-0.37, 0.87)
Dist. to Roads (m) *Treatment	-0.02 (-0.09, 0.05)
Pop. Density (2000) *Treatment	-0.01 (-0.07, 0.06)
Latitude *Treatment	-0.002 (-0.17, 0.17)
Longitude *Treatment	0.005 (-0.09, 0.09)
NDVI (2002, Unitless) *Treatment	-0.03 (-0.12, 0.06)
Elevation (m) *Treatment	-0.04 (-0.14, 0.07)
Slope (degrees) *Treatment	-0.04 (-0.13, 0.06)
Treecover (2000, %) *Treatment	0.12^** (0.01, 0.22)
Max Temp (2002, C) *Treatment	0.19 (-0.12, 0.50)
Mean Temp (2002, C) *Treatment	-0.40 (-1.12, 0.32)
Min Temp (2002, C) *Treatment	0.18 (-0.36, 0.72)
Max Precip. (2002, mm) *Treatment	0.19^** (0.01, 0.36)
Mean Precip (2002, mm) *Treatment	-0.17 (-0.38, 0.04)
Min Precip (2002, mm) *Treatment	0.04 (-0.05, 0.13)
Protected Area % *Treatment	-0.04 (-0.10, 0.03)
years since implementation *Treatment	-0.06^* (-0.12, 0.01)
Constant	-0.01 (-0.07, 0.05)

Observations	870
R²	0.33
Adjusted R²	0.30

Note:	^p<0.1; ^p<0.05; ^**p<0.01

Standardized Beta Coefficients for Linear Model with Heterogeneous Effects